Fewer Homes, Longer Waits: Understanding Kern County’s Latest Market Shift

Something unusual is happening in the Kern County housing market — something that even seasoned homeowners may not expect. On one hand, the number of homes for sale has dropped sharply, signaling a classic seller’s market. On the other hand, those very same homes are taking longer to sell. It’s a combination that feels counterintuitive, and it’s causing many buyers and sellers to wonder: How can both be true at the same time?

Two of the most important numbers used to understand the housing market are Months of Inventory and Days on Market. Even for those who aren’t familiar with real estate, these two metrics offer a clear picture of how quickly homes are selling and how much competition exists between buyers and sellers.

Months of Inventory is a measure of housing supply. It answers one simple question: If no new homes were listed starting today, how long would it take for all the homes currently on the market to sell?

• A lower number means there are fewer homes available relative to the number of buyers looking.

• When supply is low, the market tends to lean in favor of sellers because buyers have fewer options.

Days on Market, on the other hand, is a measure of buyer behavior. It reflects how long the average home takes to sell after being listed.

• A lower number usually means homes are selling quickly and buyers are acting fast.

• A higher number means buyers are taking longer to make decisions or are being more selective.

These two metrics are closely watched because they reveal the overall “speed” and “balance” of the market. When used together, they help identify whether conditions favor buyers, sellers, or neither.

A Surprising Shift in Kern County

The most recent data in Kern County shows something that doesn’t happen often: Months of Inventory is decreasing while Days on Market is increasing.

In September 2025, the market carried 3.4 months of inventory. By October, that number dropped to 2.8 months — a 17.7% decrease, meaning there are fewer homes available for buyers to choose from.

Yet during that same period, the average Days on Market rose from 39 to 46 days — a 17.9% increase, meaning homes are taking longer to sell.

At first glance, this seems contradictory. Fewer homes should lead to faster sales, not slower ones. However, the underlying forces shaping this trend tell a different story.

Why Inventory Is Shrinking

The decline in Months of Inventory is largely driven by limited seller activity. Many homeowners who secured low interest rates during 2020–2022 are choosing not to move. Trading a 3% mortgage for a 6–7% rate is a significant financial leap, so many potential sellers are staying put.

New construction is active in several parts of Bakersfield, but not at a pace fast enough to replace the listings that never come to market. Meanwhile, demand remains steady — especially from buyers relocating from higher-priced areas of California — keeping available inventory tight.

Why Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell

Although supply is limited, today’s buyers are more cautious than they were in previous years. Higher interest rates have made monthly payments more expensive, prompting buyers to evaluate homes more carefully. Instead of rushing to buy due to competition, many are waiting for the right fit or better pricing.

Pricing strategy is also playing a larger role. When inventory is low, some sellers assume buyers will overlook condition, presentation, or price. However, buyers are becoming more selective, and homes that enter the market overpriced or not fully prepared tend to sit longer — even when overall supply is low.

How Both Things Can Be True at Once

Months of Inventory reflects the number of homes available. Days on Market reflects the pace at which buyers are choosing to purchase them. Those two dynamics don’t always move together.

In today’s environment:

• Fewer homeowners are listing their properties, reducing supply.

• Buyers are still active but are taking more time to make decisions, slowing down the speed of sales.

The result is a market that appears competitive on paper but feels slower in practice.

What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

For sellers, this trend underscores the importance of entering the market with strong pricing and thoughtful presentation. Homes that are prepared well and priced correctly still attract motivated buyers. Homes that miss the mark often linger — even in a low-inventory market.

For buyers, increased Days on Market may provide opportunities for negotiation or a more relaxed pace of home-shopping, even though overall choices remain limited.

A Market Defined by Nuance

The recent shift in Kern County’s Months of Inventory and Days on Market highlights a market driven not by a lack of demand, but by changing behavior among both buyers and sellers. While inventory continues to tighten, buyers are approaching their decisions more carefully, leading to a slower sales timeline. Together, these numbers signal a market that is neither speeding ahead nor slowing to a halt — but instead finding a new, more cautious balance.

For anyone considering buying or selling in this evolving market, receiving clear guidance rooted in local data can make all the difference. The McCarty Group is here to help homeowners and buyers understand what these trends mean for their goals. Call or text 661-665-SOLD anytime for a market evaluation or to discuss your next steps.